Vimenor 3–1 Velarde: Result & Stats

Vimenor

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Velarde

1/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vimenor62%

×Draw22%

Velarde16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VimenorExpected goals in this matchVelarde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.85

Vimenor

1.89

Velarde

0.85

Vimenor creates 122% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

0.76

0.95

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vimenor

1.78

Velarde

0.76

allows per match

Vimenor

0.95

Velarde

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par

Velarde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Velarde →

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw

84%

Vimenor or Velarde

78%

Draw or Velarde

38%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+

37%

Velarde wins by 2+

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals

85%

Vimenor 2+ goals

56%

Vimenor 3+ goals

29%

Velarde 1+ goals

57%

Velarde 2+ goals

21%

Velarde 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)

79%

Velarde (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Velarde away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Velarde defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Velarde attack 0.76 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vimenor scores more

62%

level

22%

Velarde scores more

16%

Vimenor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff