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Vimenor vs Illescas — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Vimenor
Vimenor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Illescas
Illescas
6/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vimenor27%
×Draw29%
Illescas44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vimenor
0.88
Illescas
1.21

Illescas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vimenor
0.75
Illescas
1.67

allows per match

Vimenor
0.75
Illescas
1.00

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par
Illescas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Illescas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw
56%
Vimenor or Illescas
71%
Draw or Illescas
73%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+
9%
Illescas wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals
59%
Vimenor 2+ goals
22%
Vimenor 3+ goals
6%
Illescas 1+ goals
70%
Illescas 2+ goals
34%
Illescas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)
38%
Illescas (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Illescas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 0.75 + Illescas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Illescas attack 1.67 + Vimenor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vimenor scores more
27%
level
29%
Illescas scores more
44%

Illescas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Illescas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Vimenor 1–1 Illescas

Vimenor and Illescas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Vidriera in Vioño de Piélagos.