Vimenor 0–0 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Vimenor

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarnizo

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Vimenor46%

×Draw26%

Guarnizo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VimenorExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.09

Vimenor

1.49

Guarnizo

1.09

Vimenor creates 37% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 111 away

1.78

creates per match

1.23

0.95

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Vimenor

1.78

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Vimenor

0.95

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Guarnizo →

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw

72%

Vimenor or Guarnizo

74%

Draw or Guarnizo

54%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+

23%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals

77%

Vimenor 2+ goals

44%

Vimenor 3+ goals

19%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

66%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

30%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)

63%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vimenor scores more

46%

level

26%

Guarnizo scores more

28%

Vimenor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff