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Vilzing vs Würzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Vilzing
Vilzing
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
S. Sedlaczek 44'
E. Zejnullahu 4'
3/10/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 19Manfred-Zollner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Vilzing28%
×Draw24%
Würzburger Kickers48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilzing
1.26
Würzburger Kickers
1.72

Würzburger Kickers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vilzing
1.76
Würzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Vilzing
1.33
Würzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Vilzing+0.00on par
Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilzing ↓

Würzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vilzing or draw
52%
Vilzing or Würzburger Kickers
76%
Draw or Würzburger Kickers
72%

Winning margin

Vilzing wins by 2+
12%
Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vilzing 1+ goals
72%
Vilzing 2+ goals
36%
Vilzing 3+ goals
13%
Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
82%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
51%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vilzing (draw refunded)
37%
Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilzing at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilzing attack 1.76 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.26

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Vilzing defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vilzing scores more
28%
level
24%
Würzburger Kickers scores more
48%

Würzburger Kickers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
E. Zejnullahu
44'
S. Sedlaczek
Vilzing
Würzburger
J. Eibl
Manager: J. Eibl
S. Neumann
Manager: S. Neumann

Match Recap: Vilzing vs Würzburger Kickers

Vilzing and Würzburger Kickers drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 10, 2026.

Goals: E. Zejnullahu (4'), S. Sedlaczek (44').

The match was played at Manfred-Zollner-Stadion in Cham.