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Vilzing vs Illertissen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Vilzing
Vilzing
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Illertissen
Illertissen
9/13/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 8Manfred-Zollner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Vilzing44%
×Draw24%
Illertissen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilzing
1.68
Illertissen
1.43

Vilzing creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 96 away

creates per match

Vilzing
1.76
Illertissen
1.52

allows per match

Vilzing
1.33
Illertissen
1.59

finishing

Vilzing+0.00on par
Illertissen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilzing ↓

Illertissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vilzing or draw
67%
Vilzing or Illertissen
76%
Draw or Illertissen
56%

Winning margin

Vilzing wins by 2+
23%
Illertissen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vilzing 1+ goals
81%
Vilzing 2+ goals
50%
Vilzing 3+ goals
24%
Illertissen 1+ goals
76%
Illertissen 2+ goals
42%
Illertissen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vilzing (draw refunded)
57%
Illertissen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilzing at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Illertissen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilzing attack 1.76 + Illertissen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Illertissen attack 1.52 + Vilzing defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilzing scores more
44%
level
24%
Illertissen scores more
33%

Vilzing at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vilzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilzing vs Illertissen

Illertissen beat Vilzing 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Manfred-Zollner-Stadion in Cham.