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Vilzing vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Vilzing
Vilzing
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
8/11/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4Manfred-Zollner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Vilzing44%
×Draw23%
FC Schweinfurt 0533%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilzing
1.81
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.54

Vilzing creates 18% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 67 away

creates per match

Vilzing
1.76
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.76

allows per match

Vilzing
1.33
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.87

finishing

Vilzing+0.00on par
FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilzing ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vilzing or draw
67%
Vilzing or FC Schweinfurt 05
77%
Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05
56%

Winning margin

Vilzing wins by 2+
24%
FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vilzing 1+ goals
84%
Vilzing 2+ goals
54%
Vilzing 3+ goals
27%
FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
79%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
45%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vilzing (draw refunded)
57%
FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilzing at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.87 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilzing attack 1.76 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.76 + Vilzing defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilzing scores more
44%
level
23%
FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
33%

Vilzing at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vilzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilzing vs FC Schweinfurt 05

FC Schweinfurt 05 beat Vilzing 5-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Manfred-Zollner-Stadion in Cham.