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Vilzing vs Bayreuth — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Vilzing
Vilzing
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bayreuth
Bayreuth
10/4/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 12Manfred-Zollner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Vilzing40%
×Draw24%
Bayreuth36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilzing
1.58
Bayreuth
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vilzing
1.76
Bayreuth
1.62

allows per match

Vilzing
1.33
Bayreuth
1.41

finishing

Vilzing+0.00on par
Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilzing ↓

Bayreuth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vilzing or draw
64%
Vilzing or Bayreuth
76%
Draw or Bayreuth
60%

Winning margin

Vilzing wins by 2+
20%
Bayreuth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vilzing 1+ goals
79%
Vilzing 2+ goals
47%
Vilzing 3+ goals
21%
Bayreuth 1+ goals
77%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
43%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vilzing (draw refunded)
53%
Bayreuth (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilzing at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilzing attack 1.76 + Bayreuth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bayreuth attack 1.62 + Vilzing defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vilzing scores more
40%
level
24%
Bayreuth scores more
36%

Vilzing at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vilzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Vilzing 1–0 Bayreuth

Vilzing beat Bayreuth 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Manfred-Zollner-Stadion in Cham.