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Viltis Vilnius vs Saned Joniškis — Cup 2020

Viltis Vilnius
Viltis Vilnius
FT
11 – 0
Saned Joniškis
Saned Joniškis
6/28/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viltis Vilnius45%
×Draw17%
Saned Joniškis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viltis Vilnius
3.79
Saned Joniškis
3.46

Viltis Vilnius creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Viltis Vilnius
3.25
Saned Joniškis
2.67

allows per match

Viltis Vilnius
4.25
Saned Joniškis
4.33

finishing

Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par
Saned Joniškis+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

94%Yes
  • Yes94
  • No6

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viltis Vilnius ↓

Saned Joniškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–32%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–24%
4–35%
4–44%

Most likely 3–2 (5%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
92%8%4.5
82%18%

Double chance

Viltis Vilnius or draw
63%
Viltis Vilnius or Saned Joniškis
83%
Draw or Saned Joniškis
55%

Winning margin

Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+
29%
Saned Joniškis wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals
98%
Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals
88%
Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals
70%
Saned Joniškis 1+ goals
97%
Saned Joniškis 2+ goals
85%
Saned Joniškis 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)
55%
Saned Joniškis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
93%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viltis Vilnius at home — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Saned Joniškis away — creates 2.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.25 + Saned Joniškis defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.79

Saned Joniškis attack 2.67 + Viltis Vilnius defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viltis Vilnius scores more
45%
level
17%
Saned Joniškis scores more
37%

Viltis Vilnius at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viltis Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Viltis Vilnius 11–0 Saned Joniškis

Viltis Vilnius beat Saned Joniškis 11-0 in Cup on June 28, 2020.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.