Viltis Vilnius 1–1 Nevėžis: Result & Stats | Cup

Viltis Vilnius

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nevėžis

5/8/2024

Cup · Round of 32Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Viltis Vilnius31%

×Draw18%

Nevėžis51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viltis VilniusExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

3.00

Viltis Vilnius

2.38

Nevėžis

3.00

Nevėžis creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.25

creates per match

1.75

4.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Viltis Vilnius

3.25

Nevėžis

1.75

allows per match

Viltis Vilnius

4.25

Nevėžis

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viltis Vilnius ↓

Nevėžis →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–35%

1–44%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Viltis Vilnius or draw

49%

Viltis Vilnius or Nevėžis

82%

Draw or Nevėžis

69%

Winning margin

Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+

17%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals

91%

Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals

68%

Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals

42%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

95%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

79%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)

38%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Viltis Vilnius at home — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.25 + Nevėžis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Nevėžis attack 1.75 + Viltis Vilnius defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viltis Vilnius scores more

31%

level

18%

Nevėžis scores more

51%

Nevėžis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff