Viltis Vilnius 0–0 Garliava: Result & Stats | Cup

Viltis Vilnius

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Garliava

5/22/2021

Cup · 1st RoundSenvagės stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Viltis Vilnius16%

×Draw14%

Garliava70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viltis VilniusExpected goals in this matchGarliava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

4.04

Viltis Vilnius

2.04

Garliava

4.04

Garliava creates 98% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

3.25

creates per match

3.83

4.25

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Viltis Vilnius

3.25

Garliava

3.83

allows per match

Viltis Vilnius

4.25

Garliava

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par

Garliava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viltis Vilnius ↓

Garliava →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–36%

1–46%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

84%16%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

Viltis Vilnius or draw

30%

Viltis Vilnius or Garliava

86%

Draw or Garliava

84%

Winning margin

Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+

Garliava wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals

87%

Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals

60%

Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals

33%

Garliava 1+ goals

98%

Garliava 2+ goals

90%

Garliava 3+ goals

74%

Draw no bet

Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)

19%

Garliava (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Viltis Vilnius at home — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Garliava away — creates 3.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.25 + Garliava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Garliava attack 3.83 + Viltis Vilnius defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Viltis Vilnius scores more

16%

level

14%

Garliava scores more

70%

Garliava at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff