Viltis Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Viltis Vilnius22%
Džiugas Telšiai62%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Džiugas Telšiai creates 66% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over91
- Under9
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes85
- No15
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Viltis Vilnius ↓
Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Viltis Vilnius at home — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches
Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Viltis Vilnius attack 3.25 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13
Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Viltis Vilnius defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.53
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Džiugas Telšiai at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Viltis Vilnius host Džiugas Telšiai on Tuesday, 30 May 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the Cup 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Viltis Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai beat Viltis Vilnius 6-1 in Cup on May 30, 2023.
The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.