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Viltis Vilnius vs Dainava — Cup 2020

Viltis Vilnius
Viltis Vilnius
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Dainava
Dainava
4/28/2026CupCup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Viltis Vilnius17%
×Draw14%
Dainava69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viltis Vilnius
2.04
Dainava
3.96

Dainava creates 94% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Viltis Vilnius
3.25
Dainava
3.67

allows per match

Viltis Vilnius
4.25
Dainava
0.83

finishing

Viltis Vilnius+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viltis Vilnius ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Viltis Vilnius or draw
31%
Viltis Vilnius or Dainava
86%
Draw or Dainava
83%

Winning margin

Viltis Vilnius wins by 2+
8%
Dainava wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Viltis Vilnius 1+ goals
87%
Viltis Vilnius 2+ goals
60%
Viltis Vilnius 3+ goals
33%
Dainava 1+ goals
98%
Dainava 2+ goals
89%
Dainava 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Viltis Vilnius (draw refunded)
20%
Dainava (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viltis Vilnius at home — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Dainava away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viltis Vilnius attack 3.25 + Dainava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dainava attack 3.67 + Viltis Vilnius defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Viltis Vilnius scores more
17%
level
14%
Dainava scores more
69%

Dainava at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viltis Vilnius vs Dainava

Dainava beat Viltis Vilnius 7-1 in Cup on April 28, 2026.