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Vilnius FA vs Šilutė — Cup 2020

Vilnius FA
Vilnius FA
FT
1 – 0
Šilutė
Šilutė
4/11/2025CupCup · 1st RoundVFA-Hanner stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilnius FA13%
×Draw22%
Šilutė65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilnius FA
0.67
Šilutė
1.83

Šilutė creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vilnius FA
0.33
Šilutė
2.00

allows per match

Vilnius FA
1.67
Šilutė
1.00

finishing

Vilnius FA+0.00on par
Šilutė+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilnius FA ↓

Šilutė →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–214%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vilnius FA or draw
35%
Vilnius FA or Šilutė
78%
Draw or Šilutė
87%

Winning margin

Vilnius FA wins by 2+
3%
Šilutė wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Vilnius FA 1+ goals
49%
Vilnius FA 2+ goals
15%
Vilnius FA 3+ goals
3%
Šilutė 1+ goals
84%
Šilutė 2+ goals
54%
Šilutė 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vilnius FA (draw refunded)
17%
Šilutė (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilnius FA at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Šilutė away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilnius FA attack 0.33 + Šilutė defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Šilutė attack 2.00 + Vilnius FA defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vilnius FA scores more
13%
level
22%
Šilutė scores more
65%

Šilutė at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Šilutė will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilnius FA vs Šilutė

Vilnius FA beat Šilutė 1-0 in Cup on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at VFA-Hanner stadionas in Vilnius.