Vilnius FA 0–1 FK Trakai: Result & Stats | Cup

Vilnius FA

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FK Trakai

M. Karamarko 20'

4/28/2026

Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilnius FA12%

×Draw20%

FK Trakai68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilnius FAExpected goals in this matchFK Trakai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

2.04

Vilnius FA

0.72

FK Trakai

2.04

FK Trakai creates 183% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

2.40

1.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Vilnius FA

0.33

FK Trakai

2.40

allows per match

Vilnius FA

1.67

FK Trakai

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilnius FA+0.00on par

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilnius FA ↓

FK Trakai →

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vilnius FA or draw

32%

Vilnius FA or FK Trakai

80%

Draw or FK Trakai

88%

Winning margin

Vilnius FA wins by 2+

FK Trakai wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Vilnius FA 1+ goals

51%

Vilnius FA 2+ goals

16%

Vilnius FA 3+ goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

87%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

60%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Vilnius FA (draw refunded)

15%

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilnius FA at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

FK Trakai away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilnius FA attack 0.33 + FK Trakai defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

FK Trakai attack 2.40 + Vilnius FA defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vilnius FA scores more

12%

level

20%

FK Trakai scores more

68%

FK Trakai at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Trakai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Karamarko

Vilnius

Manager: R. Šuškevič

Manager: Gorazd Mihailov