Vilniaus Vytis 4–1 Žalgiris II: Result & Stats

Vilniaus Vytis

FT

4 – 1

Žalgiris II

6/21/2020

1 Lyga · Round 3Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis58%

×Draw19%

Žalgiris II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilniaus VytisExpected goals in this matchŽalgiris II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.42

Vilniaus Vytis

2.38

Žalgiris II

1.42

Vilniaus Vytis creates 68% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 88 away

2.60

creates per match

1.55

1.28

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis

2.60

Žalgiris II

1.55

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis

1.28

Žalgiris II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Žalgiris II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw

78%

Vilniaus Vytis or Žalgiris II

81%

Draw or Žalgiris II

42%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

37%

Žalgiris II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

91%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

68%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

42%

Žalgiris II 1+ goals

76%

Žalgiris II 2+ goals

41%

Žalgiris II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

72%

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.38

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

58%

level

19%

Žalgiris II scores more

22%

Vilniaus Vytis at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff