Vilniaus Vytis 0–3 Suduva Marijampole

Vilniaus Vytis

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Suduva Marijampole

9/11/2020

Cup · Quarter-finalsVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis2%

×Draw10%

Suduva Marijampole87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilniaus VytisExpected goals in this matchSuduva Marijampole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.22

2.55

Vilniaus Vytis

0.22

Suduva Marijampole

2.55

Suduva Marijampole creates 1059% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.33

creates per match

2.78

2.33

allows per match

0.11

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis

0.33

Suduva Marijampole

2.78

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis

2.33

Suduva Marijampole

0.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No82
Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Suduva Marijampole →

0–06%

0–116%

0–221%

0–318%

0–411%

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (21%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw

13%

Vilniaus Vytis or Suduva Marijampole

90%

Draw or Suduva Marijampole

98%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

20%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

92%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

72%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 0.33 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.22

Suduva Marijampole attack 2.78 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

level

10%

Suduva Marijampole scores more

87%

Suduva Marijampole at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff