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Vilniaus Vytis vs Stumbras II — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
3 – 0
Stumbras II
Stumbras II
6/29/20181 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 14Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis70%
×Draw17%
Stumbras II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
2.56
Stumbras II
1.04

Vilniaus Vytis creates 146% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
3.21
Stumbras II
0.91

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.17
Stumbras II
1.91

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Stumbras II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Stumbras II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
87%
Vilniaus Vytis or Stumbras II
83%
Draw or Stumbras II
30%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
48%
Stumbras II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
92%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
72%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
46%
Stumbras II 1+ goals
65%
Stumbras II 2+ goals
28%
Stumbras II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
84%
Stumbras II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

Stumbras II away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 3.21 + Stumbras II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.56

Stumbras II attack 0.91 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
70%
level
17%
Stumbras II scores more
13%

Vilniaus Vytis at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilniaus Vytis vs Stumbras II

Vilniaus Vytis beat Stumbras II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on June 29, 2018.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.