Vilniaus Vytis 2–0 Kupiškis: Result & Stats

Vilniaus Vytis

FT

2 – 0

Kupiškis

8/30/2019

1 Lyga · Round 22Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis50%

×Draw20%

Kupiškis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilniaus VytisExpected goals in this matchKupiškis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.75

Vilniaus Vytis

2.30

Kupiškis

1.75

Vilniaus Vytis creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

2.60

creates per match

2.21

1.28

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis

2.60

Kupiškis

2.21

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis

1.28

Kupiškis

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Kupiškis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw

70%

Vilniaus Vytis or Kupiškis

80%

Draw or Kupiškis

50%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

30%

Kupiškis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

90%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

67%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

40%

Kupiškis 1+ goals

83%

Kupiškis 2+ goals

52%

Kupiškis 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

63%

Kupiškis (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

50%

level

20%

Kupiškis scores more

30%

Vilniaus Vytis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff