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Vilniaus Vytis vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
2 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
6/5/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis64%
×Draw19%
Kauno Žalgiris II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
2.37
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17

Vilniaus Vytis creates 103% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 77 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.28
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
82%
Vilniaus Vytis or Kauno Žalgiris II
81%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
36%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
41%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
91%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
68%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
42%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
69%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
33%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
78%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
64%
level
19%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
18%

Vilniaus Vytis at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilniaus Vytis vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Vilniaus Vytis beat Kauno Žalgiris II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on June 5, 2020.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.