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Vilniaus Vytis vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
1 – 0
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
6/30/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis8%
×Draw14%
Džiugas Telšiai78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
0.67
Džiugas Telšiai
2.57

Džiugas Telšiai creates 284% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
0.33
Džiugas Telšiai
2.81

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.33
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
22%
Vilniaus Vytis or Džiugas Telšiai
86%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
92%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
2%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
49%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
15%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
3%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
92%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
72%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
9%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 0.33 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
8%
level
14%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
78%

Džiugas Telšiai at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Vilniaus Vytis 1–0 Džiugas Telšiai

Vilniaus Vytis beat Džiugas Telšiai 1-0 in Cup on June 30, 2020.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.