Vilniaus Vytis 2–3 Dainava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Vilniaus Vytis

FT

2 – 3

Dainava

4/5/2019

1 Lyga · Round 3Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis47%

×Draw23%

Dainava30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilniaus VytisExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.44

Vilniaus Vytis

1.86

Dainava

1.44

Vilniaus Vytis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 48 away

2.60

creates per match

1.60

1.28

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis

2.60

Dainava

1.60

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis

1.28

Dainava

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw

70%

Vilniaus Vytis or Dainava

77%

Draw or Dainava

53%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

26%

Dainava wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

84%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

55%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

28%

Dainava 1+ goals

76%

Dainava 2+ goals

42%

Dainava 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

61%

Dainava (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dainava attack 1.60 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

47%

level

23%

Dainava scores more

30%

Vilniaus Vytis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff