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Villisiat vs Lahti Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

Villisiat
Villisiat
FT
0 – 7
Lahti Akatemia
Lahti Akatemia
3/5/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundMukkulan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Villisiat4%
×Draw8%
Lahti Akatemia87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villisiat
0.83
Lahti Akatemia
3.83

Lahti Akatemia creates 361% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Villisiat
0.67
Lahti Akatemia
4.00

allows per match

Villisiat
3.67
Lahti Akatemia
1.00

finishing

Villisiat+0.00on par
Lahti Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villisiat ↓

Lahti Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Villisiat or draw
13%
Villisiat or Lahti Akatemia
92%
Draw or Lahti Akatemia
96%

Winning margin

Villisiat wins by 2+
1%
Lahti Akatemia wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Villisiat 1+ goals
56%
Villisiat 2+ goals
20%
Villisiat 3+ goals
5%
Lahti Akatemia 1+ goals
98%
Lahti Akatemia 2+ goals
88%
Lahti Akatemia 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Villisiat (draw refunded)
5%
Lahti Akatemia (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villisiat at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Lahti Akatemia away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villisiat attack 0.67 + Lahti Akatemia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Lahti Akatemia attack 4.00 + Villisiat defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Villisiat scores more
4%
level
8%
Lahti Akatemia scores more
87%

Lahti Akatemia at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Lahti Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Villisiat 0–7 Lahti Akatemia

Lahti Akatemia beat Villisiat 7-0 in Suomen Cup on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Mukkulan halli in Lahti.