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Villingen II vs FV Ravensburg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Villingen II
Villingen II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
8/21/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 3MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II25%
×Draw20%
FV Ravensburg54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villingen II
1.50
FV Ravensburg
2.25

FV Ravensburg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Villingen II
1.18
FV Ravensburg
1.49

allows per match

Villingen II
3.00
FV Ravensburg
1.81

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par
FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

FV Ravensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw
46%
Villingen II or FV Ravensburg
80%
Draw or FV Ravensburg
75%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+
11%
FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals
78%
Villingen II 2+ goals
44%
Villingen II 3+ goals
19%
FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
89%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
65%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)
32%
FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

FV Ravensburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

FV Ravensburg attack 1.49 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Villingen II scores more
25%
level
20%
FV Ravensburg scores more
54%

FV Ravensburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Villingen II 5–1 FV Ravensburg

Villingen II beat FV Ravensburg 5-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at MS Technologie Arena in Villingen-Schwenningen.