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Villingen II vs Fellbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Villingen II
Villingen II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Fellbach
Fellbach
F. Bruno 35'
B. Dautaj 70'
P. Fossi 43'
M. Binner 17'
3/23/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 24Kunstrasenplatz FC 08 Villingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II37%
×Draw21%
Fellbach42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villingen II
1.97
Fellbach
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Villingen II
1.18
Fellbach
1.24

allows per match

Villingen II
3.00
Fellbach
2.76

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par
Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

Fellbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw
58%
Villingen II or Fellbach
79%
Draw or Fellbach
63%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+
20%
Fellbach wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals
86%
Villingen II 2+ goals
58%
Villingen II 3+ goals
31%
Fellbach 1+ goals
88%
Fellbach 2+ goals
62%
Fellbach 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)
46%
Fellbach (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.97

Fellbach attack 1.24 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villingen II scores more
37%
level
21%
Fellbach scores more
42%

Fellbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fellbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Binner
35'
F. Bruno
43'
P. Fossi
70'
B. Dautaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Villingen II 1–3 Fellbach

Fellbach beat Villingen II 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Binner (17'), F. Bruno (35'), P. Fossi (43'), B. Dautaj (70').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FC 08 Villingen in Villingen-Schwenningen.