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Villerupt Thil vs Biesheim — Coupe de France 2018

Villerupt Thil
Villerupt Thil
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Biesheim
Biesheim
11/19/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Villerupt Thil19%
×Draw20%
Biesheim61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villerupt Thil
1.19
Biesheim
2.25

Biesheim creates 89% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Villerupt Thil
1.25
Biesheim
2.00

allows per match

Villerupt Thil
2.50
Biesheim
1.14

finishing

Villerupt Thil+0.00on par
Biesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villerupt Thil ↓

Biesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Villerupt Thil or draw
39%
Villerupt Thil or Biesheim
80%
Draw or Biesheim
81%

Winning margin

Villerupt Thil wins by 2+
7%
Biesheim wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Villerupt Thil 1+ goals
70%
Villerupt Thil 2+ goals
33%
Villerupt Thil 3+ goals
12%
Biesheim 1+ goals
89%
Biesheim 2+ goals
65%
Biesheim 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Villerupt Thil (draw refunded)
24%
Biesheim (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villerupt Thil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Biesheim away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villerupt Thil attack 1.25 + Biesheim defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Biesheim attack 2.00 + Villerupt Thil defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Villerupt Thil scores more
19%
level
20%
Biesheim scores more
61%

Biesheim at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Biesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Villerupt Thil 0–2 Biesheim

Biesheim beat Villerupt Thil 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Delaune in Villerupt.