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Villerupt Thil vs Annecy — Coupe de France 2018

Villerupt Thil
Villerupt Thil
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Annecy
Annecyadvanced
1/7/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Andre Valentin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Villerupt Thil15%
×Draw17%
Annecy67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villerupt Thil
1.13
Annecy
2.54

Annecy creates 125% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Villerupt Thil
1.25
Annecy
2.58

allows per match

Villerupt Thil
2.50
Annecy
1.00

finishing

Villerupt Thil+0.00on par
Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villerupt Thil ↓

Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Villerupt Thil or draw
33%
Villerupt Thil or Annecy
83%
Draw or Annecy
85%

Winning margin

Villerupt Thil wins by 2+
6%
Annecy wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Villerupt Thil 1+ goals
68%
Villerupt Thil 2+ goals
31%
Villerupt Thil 3+ goals
11%
Annecy 1+ goals
92%
Annecy 2+ goals
72%
Annecy 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Villerupt Thil (draw refunded)
18%
Annecy (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villerupt Thil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Annecy away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villerupt Thil attack 1.25 + Annecy defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Annecy attack 2.58 + Villerupt Thil defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Villerupt Thil scores more
15%
level
17%
Annecy scores more
67%

Annecy at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Villerupt Thil 1–6 Annecy

Annecy beat Villerupt Thil 6-1 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Andre Valentin in Amnéville-les-Thermes.