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Villers Houlgate CF vs Racing Colombes 92 — Coupe de France 2018

Villers Houlgate CF
Villers Houlgate CF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Racing Colombes 92
Racing Colombes 92
12/10/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade André Salesse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Villers Houlgate CF27%
×Draw21%
Racing Colombes 9253%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villers Houlgate CF
1.50
Racing Colombes 92
2.17

Racing Colombes 92 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Villers Houlgate CF
2.00
Racing Colombes 92
2.33

allows per match

Villers Houlgate CF
2.00
Racing Colombes 92
1.00

finishing

Villers Houlgate CF+0.00on par
Racing Colombes 92+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villers Houlgate CF ↓

Racing Colombes 92 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Villers Houlgate CF or draw
47%
Villers Houlgate CF or Racing Colombes 92
79%
Draw or Racing Colombes 92
73%

Winning margin

Villers Houlgate CF wins by 2+
12%
Racing Colombes 92 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Villers Houlgate CF 1+ goals
78%
Villers Houlgate CF 2+ goals
44%
Villers Houlgate CF 3+ goals
19%
Racing Colombes 92 1+ goals
89%
Racing Colombes 92 2+ goals
64%
Racing Colombes 92 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Villers Houlgate CF (draw refunded)
34%
Racing Colombes 92 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villers Houlgate CF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Racing Colombes 92 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villers Houlgate CF attack 2.00 + Racing Colombes 92 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Racing Colombes 92 attack 2.33 + Villers Houlgate CF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Villers Houlgate CF scores more
27%
level
21%
Racing Colombes 92 scores more
53%

Racing Colombes 92 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Colombes 92 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villers Houlgate CF vs Racing Colombes 92

Racing Colombes 92 beat Villers Houlgate CF 3-1 in Coupe de France on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade André Salesse in Villers-sur-Mer.