Villers Houlgate CF 1–5 Le Havre: Result & Stats

Villers Houlgate CF

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Le Havre

12/8/2018

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade André Heurtematte (Dives-sur-Mer)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Villers Houlgate CF26%

×Draw19%

Le Havre55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villers Houlgate CFExpected goals in this matchLe Havre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.45

Villers Houlgate CF

1.67

Le Havre

2.45

Le Havre creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.22

2.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Villers Houlgate CF

2.00

Le Havre

2.22

allows per match

Villers Houlgate CF

2.67

Le Havre

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villers Houlgate CF+0.00on par

Le Havre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villers Houlgate CF ↓

Le Havre →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Villers Houlgate CF or draw

45%

Villers Houlgate CF or Le Havre

81%

Draw or Le Havre

74%

Winning margin

Villers Houlgate CF wins by 2+

12%

Le Havre wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Villers Houlgate CF 1+ goals

81%

Villers Houlgate CF 2+ goals

50%

Villers Houlgate CF 3+ goals

23%

Le Havre 1+ goals

91%

Le Havre 2+ goals

70%

Le Havre 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Villers Houlgate CF (draw refunded)

32%

Le Havre (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villers Houlgate CF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Le Havre away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villers Houlgate CF attack 2.00 + Le Havre defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Le Havre attack 2.22 + Villers Houlgate CF defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villers Houlgate CF scores more

26%

level

19%

Le Havre scores more

55%

Le Havre at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff