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Villegas vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Villegas
Villegas
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 3
Varea
Varea
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Villegas14%
×Draw19%
Varea67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villegas
0.88
Varea
2.17

Varea creates 147% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 108 away

creates per match

Villegas
0.78
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Villegas
2.54
Varea
0.97

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Villegas or draw
33%
Villegas or Varea
81%
Draw or Varea
86%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+
4%
Varea wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals
59%
Villegas 2+ goals
22%
Villegas 3+ goals
6%
Varea 1+ goals
89%
Varea 2+ goals
64%
Varea 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)
17%
Varea (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Varea attack 1.81 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Villegas scores more
14%
level
19%
Varea scores more
67%

Varea at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Villegas 0–9 Varea

Varea beat Villegas 9-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Ribera in Logroño.