Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villegas vs San Marcial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Villegas
Villegas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Marcial
San Marcial
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 31Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villegas27%
×Draw23%
San Marcial50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villegas
1.27
San Marcial
1.83

San Marcial creates 44% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Villegas
0.78
San Marcial
1.12

allows per match

Villegas
2.54
San Marcial
1.76

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par
San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

San Marcial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Villegas or draw
50%
Villegas or San Marcial
77%
Draw or San Marcial
73%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+
11%
San Marcial wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals
72%
Villegas 2+ goals
36%
Villegas 3+ goals
14%
San Marcial 1+ goals
84%
San Marcial 2+ goals
54%
San Marcial 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)
35%
San Marcial (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

San Marcial attack 1.12 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villegas scores more
27%
level
23%
San Marcial scores more
50%

San Marcial at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "San Marcial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Villegas 2–2 San Marcial

Villegas and San Marcial drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Ribera in Logroño.