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Villegas vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Villegas
Villegas
CANC
00:00
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Villegas23%
×Draw22%
Casalarreina55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villegas
1.18
Casalarreina
1.94

Casalarreina creates 64% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 91 away

creates per match

Villegas
0.78
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Villegas
2.54
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Villegas or draw
45%
Villegas or Casalarreina
78%
Draw or Casalarreina
77%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+
9%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals
69%
Villegas 2+ goals
33%
Villegas 3+ goals
12%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
86%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
58%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)
30%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.18

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villegas scores more
23%
level
22%
Casalarreina scores more
55%

Casalarreina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Villegas host Casalarreina

April 19, 2020: Villegas take on Casalarreina in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Villegas host Casalarreina at Estadio La Ribera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.