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Villegas vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Villegas
Villegas
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Autol
Autol
3/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Villegas44%
×Draw23%
Autol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villegas
1.76
Autol
1.52

Villegas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Villegas
0.78
Autol
0.50

allows per match

Villegas
2.54
Autol
2.74

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par
Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

Autol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Villegas or draw
67%
Villegas or Autol
77%
Draw or Autol
56%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+
23%
Autol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals
83%
Villegas 2+ goals
52%
Villegas 3+ goals
26%
Autol 1+ goals
78%
Autol 2+ goals
45%
Autol 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)
57%
Autol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.76

Autol attack 0.50 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Villegas scores more
44%
level
23%
Autol scores more
33%

Villegas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Villegas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Villegas 4–0 Autol

Villegas beat Autol 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Ribera in Logroño.