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Villegas vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Villegas
Villegas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Alberite
Alberite
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Villegas38%
×Draw23%
Alberite39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villegas
1.69
Alberite
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Villegas
0.78
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Villegas
2.54
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Villegas or draw
61%
Villegas or Alberite
77%
Draw or Alberite
62%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+
19%
Alberite wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals
82%
Villegas 2+ goals
50%
Villegas 3+ goals
24%
Alberite 1+ goals
82%
Alberite 2+ goals
51%
Alberite 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)
50%
Alberite (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Alberite attack 0.85 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villegas scores more
38%
level
23%
Alberite scores more
39%

Alberite at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alberite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villegas vs Alberite

Alberite beat Villegas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Ribera in Logroño.