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Villaviciosa Odón vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
11/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón24%
×Draw28%
Ursaria48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaviciosa Odón
0.88
Ursaria
1.36

Ursaria creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón
0.85
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón
1.35
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw
52%
Villaviciosa Odón or Ursaria
72%
Draw or Ursaria
76%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
8%
Ursaria wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
59%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
22%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
6%
Ursaria 1+ goals
74%
Ursaria 2+ goals
39%
Ursaria 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
34%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more
24%
level
28%
Ursaria scores more
48%

Ursaria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villaviciosa Odón 0 – 2 Ursaria

Ursaria beat Villaviciosa Odón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.