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Villaviciosa Odón vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón39%
×Draw27%
Tres Cantos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaviciosa Odón
1.30
Tres Cantos
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 71 away

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón
0.85
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón
1.35
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw
66%
Villaviciosa Odón or Tres Cantos
73%
Draw or Tres Cantos
61%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
18%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
73%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
37%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
14%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
70%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
33%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
54%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more
39%
level
27%
Tres Cantos scores more
34%

Villaviciosa Odón at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villaviciosa Odón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villaviciosa Odón vs Tres Cantos

Villaviciosa Odón beat Tres Cantos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.