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Villaviciosa Odón vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón31%
×Draw27%
Madrid 2021 FP42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaviciosa Odón
1.09
Madrid 2021 FP
1.31

Madrid 2021 FP creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón
0.85
Madrid 2021 FP
1.26

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón
1.35
Madrid 2021 FP
1.34

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par
Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw
58%
Villaviciosa Odón or Madrid 2021 FP
73%
Draw or Madrid 2021 FP
69%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
12%
Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
66%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
30%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
10%
Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
73%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
38%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
43%
Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more
31%
level
27%
Madrid 2021 FP scores more
42%

Madrid 2021 FP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaviciosa Odón 1–2 Madrid 2021 FP

Madrid 2021 FP beat Villaviciosa Odón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.