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Villaviciosa Odón vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón18%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaviciosa Odón
0.72
Atlético Madrid II
1.48

Atlético Madrid II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón
0.85
Atlético Madrid II
1.60

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón
1.35
Atlético Madrid II
0.60

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw
45%
Villaviciosa Odón or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
82%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
5%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
51%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
16%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
4%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
25%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.72

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more
18%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
55%

Atlético Madrid II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaviciosa Odón 1–1 Atlético Madrid II

Villaviciosa Odón and Atlético Madrid II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.