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Villaverde-Boetticher vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
3/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher38%
×Draw29%
Trival Valderas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.13
Trival Valderas
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 115 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
67%
Villaverde-Boetticher or Trival Valderas
71%
Draw or Trival Valderas
62%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
15%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
68%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
31%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
11%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
65%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
28%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
53%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
38%
level
29%
Trival Valderas scores more
33%

Villaverde-Boetticher at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villaverde-Boetticher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villaverde-Boetticher vs Trival Valderas

Villaverde-Boetticher beat Trival Valderas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.