Villaverde-Boetticher 2–3 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Villaverde-Boetticher

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Ana

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher46%

×Draw26%

Santa Ana27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villaverde-BoetticherExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.04

Villaverde-Boetticher

1.45

Santa Ana

1.04

Villaverde-Boetticher creates 39% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 31 away

0.96

creates per match

0.97

1.10

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher

0.96

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher

1.10

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Santa Ana →

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw

73%

Villaverde-Boetticher or Santa Ana

74%

Draw or Santa Ana

54%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+

23%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals

77%

Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals

42%

Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals

18%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

65%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

28%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)

63%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more

46%

level

26%

Santa Ana scores more

27%

Villaverde-Boetticher at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Villaverde-Boetticher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff