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Villaverde-Boetticher vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
5/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher43%
×Draw27%
San Fernando Henares30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.40
San Fernando Henares
1.12

Villaverde-Boetticher creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 29 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
70%
Villaverde-Boetticher or San Fernando Henares
73%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
57%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
21%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
75%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
41%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
17%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
67%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
31%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
59%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
43%
level
27%
San Fernando Henares scores more
30%

Villaverde-Boetticher at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villaverde-Boetticher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaverde-Boetticher 2–2 San Fernando Henares

Villaverde-Boetticher and San Fernando Henares drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.