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Villaverde-Boetticher vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher35%
×Draw28%
Madrid 2021 FP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.15
Madrid 2021 FP
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
Madrid 2021 FP
1.26

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
Madrid 2021 FP
1.34

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
63%
Villaverde-Boetticher or Madrid 2021 FP
72%
Draw or Madrid 2021 FP
65%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
14%
Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
68%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
32%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
11%
Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
69%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
33%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
49%
Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
35%
level
28%
Madrid 2021 FP scores more
37%

Madrid 2021 FP at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villaverde-Boetticher 0 – 1 Madrid 2021 FP

Madrid 2021 FP beat Villaverde-Boetticher 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.