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Villaverde-Boetticher vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Getafe II
Getafe II
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher30%
×Draw29%
Getafe II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.98
Getafe II
1.20

Getafe II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
Getafe II
1.29

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
Getafe II
1.00

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
59%
Villaverde-Boetticher or Getafe II
71%
Draw or Getafe II
70%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
11%
Getafe II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
62%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
26%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
8%
Getafe II 1+ goals
70%
Getafe II 2+ goals
34%
Getafe II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
42%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
30%
level
29%
Getafe II scores more
41%

Getafe II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaverde-Boetticher 0–1 Getafe II

Getafe II beat Villaverde-Boetticher 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.