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Villaverde-Boetticher vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher47%
×Draw27%
El Álamo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.40
El Álamo
0.98

Villaverde-Boetticher creates 43% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 47 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
74%
Villaverde-Boetticher or El Álamo
73%
Draw or El Álamo
53%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
22%
El Álamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
75%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
41%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
17%
El Álamo 1+ goals
62%
El Álamo 2+ goals
26%
El Álamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
64%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.40

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
47%
level
27%
El Álamo scores more
26%

Villaverde-Boetticher at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Villaverde-Boetticher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villaverde-Boetticher 1 – 1 El Álamo

Villaverde-Boetticher and El Álamo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.