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Villaverde-Boetticher vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher33%
×Draw30%
Collado Villalba36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.00
Collado Villalba
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 49 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
64%
Villaverde-Boetticher or Collado Villalba
70%
Draw or Collado Villalba
67%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
12%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
63%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
26%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
8%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
65%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
29%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
48%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
33%
level
30%
Collado Villalba scores more
36%

Collado Villalba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villaverde-Boetticher 5 – 2 Collado Villalba

Villaverde-Boetticher beat Collado Villalba 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.