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Villaverde-Boetticher vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
CANC
22:00
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 36Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher42%
×Draw27%
Atlético Pinto31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.32
Atlético Pinto
1.10

Villaverde-Boetticher creates 20% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 29 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
69%
Villaverde-Boetticher or Atlético Pinto
73%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
58%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
73%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
38%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
42%
level
27%
Atlético Pinto scores more
31%

Villaverde-Boetticher at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villaverde-Boetticher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villaverde-Boetticher vs Atlético Pinto — Match Preview

Villaverde-Boetticher face Atlético Pinto on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Villaverde-Boetticher host Atlético Pinto at Estadio Boetticher.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.