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Villarrubia vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
1/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Villarrubia39%
×Draw29%
Quintanar del Rey33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.17
Quintanar del Rey
1.05

Villarrubia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 94 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.40
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Villarrubia
0.88
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
67%
Villarrubia or Quintanar del Rey
71%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
61%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
16%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
69%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
33%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
11%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
65%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
28%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
54%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 83 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.40 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Villarrubia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villarrubia scores more
39%
level
29%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
33%

Villarrubia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villarrubia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villarrubia 0–0 Quintanar del Rey

Villarrubia and Quintanar del Rey drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.