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Villarrubia vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
11/30/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 13Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Villarrubia43%
×Draw29%
Calvo Sotelo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.25
Calvo Sotelo
0.95

Villarrubia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 93 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.40
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Villarrubia
0.88
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
72%
Villarrubia or Calvo Sotelo
71%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
57%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
19%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
71%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
36%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
13%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
61%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
25%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
61%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 83 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.40 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Villarrubia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villarrubia scores more
43%
level
29%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
28%

Villarrubia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villarrubia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villarrubia 4–0 Calvo Sotelo

Villarrubia beat Calvo Sotelo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.