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Villarrubia vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
11/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 9Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villarrubia60%
×Draw24%
Atlético Tomelloso16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.67
Atlético Tomelloso
0.72

Villarrubia creates 132% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 32 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.40
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

Villarrubia
0.88
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
84%
Villarrubia or Atlético Tomelloso
76%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
40%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
34%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
81%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
50%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
79%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 83 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.40 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Villarrubia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Villarrubia scores more
60%
level
24%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
16%

Villarrubia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Villarrubia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarrubia vs Atlético Tomelloso

Villarrubia beat Atlético Tomelloso 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.