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Villarrobledo vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Clemente
San Clemente
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villarrobledo55%
×Draw26%
San Clemente19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrobledo
1.50
San Clemente
0.77

Villarrobledo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 50 away

creates per match

Villarrobledo
1.15
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

Villarrobledo
0.84
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

Villarrobledo+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrobledo ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarrobledo or draw
81%
Villarrobledo or San Clemente
74%
Draw or San Clemente
45%

Winning margin

Villarrobledo wins by 2+
28%
San Clemente wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Villarrobledo 1+ goals
78%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
44%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
19%
San Clemente 1+ goals
54%
San Clemente 2+ goals
18%
San Clemente 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
74%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrobledo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrobledo attack 1.15 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Villarrobledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villarrobledo scores more
55%
level
26%
San Clemente scores more
19%

Villarrobledo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Villarrobledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarrobledo 2 – 1 San Clemente

Villarrobledo beat San Clemente 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad in Villarrobledo.