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Villarrobledo vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Villarrobledo46%
×Draw28%
Huracán Balazote26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrobledo
1.29
Huracán Balazote
0.90

Villarrobledo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Villarrobledo
1.15
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Villarrobledo
0.84
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Villarrobledo+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrobledo ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villarrobledo or draw
74%
Villarrobledo or Huracán Balazote
72%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
54%

Winning margin

Villarrobledo wins by 2+
21%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villarrobledo 1+ goals
72%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
37%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
14%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
59%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
23%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
64%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrobledo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrobledo attack 1.15 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Villarrobledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Villarrobledo scores more
46%
level
28%
Huracán Balazote scores more
26%

Villarrobledo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Villarrobledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarrobledo 0 – 0 Huracán Balazote

Villarrobledo and Huracán Balazote drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad in Villarrobledo.